Climate Change Drives Extreme Wildfire Expansion
Human-driven climate change has made wildfires in parts of South America and Southern California many times larger and more destructive, according to the second annual “State of Wildfires” report published in Earth System Science Data. The international assessment co-led by the UK Center for Ecology & Hydrology, UK Met Office, University of East Anglia, and European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts reveals unprecedented scale increases in burned areas directly linked to climate impacts.
Quantifying Climate’s Role in Extreme Fire Seasons
According to the report, climate models indicate the Los Angeles wildfires in January were twice as likely and 25 times larger in terms of burned area in the current climate than they would have been in a world with no human-caused global warming. The analysis also found last year’s burning in the Pantanal-Chiquitano region in South America was 35 times larger, while also driving record-breaking fires in the Amazon and Congo.
UKCEH land surface modeler Dr. Douglas Kelley, who co-led this year’s report, stated: “Our annual reports are building unequivocal evidence of how climate change is increasing the frequency and severity of extreme wildfires. Without human-driven warming, many of these wildfires, in Pantanal and Southern California, for example, would not have been on an extreme scale.”
Global Wildfire Impact Statistics
The report documents devastating global impacts from the 2024-25 fire season:
- 3.7 million km² burned – an area larger than India
- 100 million people and US $215 billion worth of homes and infrastructure exposed to wildfire
- Emissions from fires reached over eight billion metric tons of CO₂ – approximately 10% above average since 2003
- Los Angeles wildfires caused 30 deaths, 150,000 evacuations, and $140 billion in economic losses
- Canada saw its second successive year of CO₂ emissions over a billion metric tons
- Bolivia had its highest CO₂ emissions total this century at 700 million metric tons
Climate Change Creates Dangerous Conditions
Report co-lead Dr. Francesca Di Giuseppe of ECMWF explained that “climate change is not only creating more dangerous fire-prone weather conditions, but it is also influencing the rates at which vegetation grows and provides fuel for the fires to spread.”
Analysts suggest the research detected the critical role of both extreme weather and fuel in the Los Angeles fires, with unusually wet weather in the preceding 30 months contributing to strong vegetation growth and laying the foundation for wildfires when unusually hot and dry conditions arrived in January. Similar patterns were observed in Amazonia and Congo, where abnormally dry forests and wetlands allowed fires to spread faster and further.
Future Projections and Call for Action
The report authors warn that in the Pantanal-Chiquitano region, extreme fire seasons like 2024-25, which once might have occurred only once or twice in a lifetime, could happen every 15-20 years by the end of the century if global greenhouse gas emissions continue on their current path. Meanwhile, there could be a five-fold increase in the extreme fires seen in the hardest-hit areas of the Congo Basin in July 2024.
Dr. Andrew Hartley of the Met Office, a co-author of the study, stated that “our climate models show the trend towards more frequent and severe wildfires will continue, especially in a world where there are high greenhouse gas emissions.”
Report co-lead Dr. Matt Jones of the University of East Anglia urged world leaders at COP30 to “make bold commitments to cut greenhouse gas emissions rapidly this decade,” calling this “the single most powerful contribution that most developed nations can make to avoiding the worst impacts of extreme wildfires.”
Mitigation Strategies and Global Context
Sources indicate that land and fire management policies can help mitigate damage, including reducing deforestation, managed burning to reduce vegetation buildup, creating fire breaks, and enhancing early warning systems. These findings come amid other major global developments, including significant corporate restructuring, potential government shutdown concerns, cryptocurrency developments, AI investment impacts, and technology integration challenges.
Dr. Maria Barbosa, a wildfire scientist at UKCEH and co-author of the report, added that “it is not too late to act to prevent a dramatic escalation in wildfires in regions across the world, and limit the risks to people, property, infrastructure, economies and biodiversity.” The research team has already begun investigations into wildfires in the current fire season, including in Southern Europe and the UK this summer.
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