According to 9to5Mac, Apple’s first foldable iPhone is currently expected to launch in fall 2026, representing a brand new addition to the flagship iPhone lineup similar to how iPhone Air debuted this year. The iPhone Fold will arrive a full seven years after Samsung’s first foldable in 2019, but market timing appears ideal as the US foldable smartphone market is projected to grow 68% year-over-year in 2025. Counterpoint Research indicates the market is evolving from “novelty to necessity,” with Apple’s entry expected to cement foldables as a mainstream premium smartphone format. This strategic timing comes as products have significantly improved, with Samsung noting its seventh-generation devices now deliver experiences unavailable on other devices.
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Why Apple’s “Late” Entry Could Be Strategic Genius
Apple’s approach to entering mature markets has historically followed a clear pattern: let competitors pioneer the technology, absorb the early adopter pain points, then enter with a refined product that addresses the market’s actual needs. We saw this with the iPod (entering years after MP3 players existed), iPhone (entering after smartphones were established), and Apple Watch (entering after wearables had years of development). The foldable smartphone market has suffered from durability concerns, high prices, and software optimization issues that Apple appears content to let competitors solve first.
The Critical Shift From Niche to Mainstream
What makes 2026 particularly interesting is that it represents the inflection point where foldables transition from experimental technology to established product category. The projected 68% growth in 2025, as detailed in Counterpoint’s research, suggests the market will have worked through its initial growing pains just as Apple enters. This timing allows Apple to benefit from seven years of industry R&D, manufacturing improvements, and consumer education without bearing the costs of market development.
How Apple’s Entry Reshapes the Competitive Field
While Samsung currently dominates the foldable space, Apple’s entry will fundamentally alter market dynamics. The iPhone brand carries immense premium market credibility, and Apple’s ecosystem integration could solve one of foldables’ persistent challenges: software optimization. More importantly, Apple’s manufacturing scale and supply chain relationships could potentially drive down component costs industry-wide, making foldables more accessible across price segments.
The Technical and Market Hurdles Apple Must Clear
Despite the favorable timing, Apple faces significant challenges. Foldable displays remain more fragile than traditional glass, and Apple’s reputation for product durability means they cannot afford the early reliability issues that plagued competitors. Additionally, Apple must decide whether to target the larger tablet-replacement market (like Samsung’s Fold series) or the compact clamshell market (like Motorola’s approach). Each carries different engineering challenges and addresses different user needs within the broader niche market evolution.
What Apple’s Foldable Means for the Entire Smartphone Industry
Apple’s entry effectively legitimizes the foldable category for the mass market. While Samsung and others have built credible businesses in this space, Apple’s participation signals to consumers and developers alike that foldables represent the future of premium smartphones. This could accelerate software optimization, accessory development, and carrier support across the board. The timing suggests Apple believes the technology has matured enough to meet their quality standards while the market remains sufficiently young to capture significant share.
