According to TechCrunch, a leaked investor letter from Tiger Global Management reveals that Waymo is now providing 450,000 robotaxi rides per week. That figure is nearly double the 250,000 weekly rides the Alphabet-owned company disclosed just six months ago in the spring. The letter, first reported by CNBC, was part of Tiger Global’s pitch for its next venture fund, highlighting gains from investments in firms like OpenAI, Databricks, and Waymo. Waymo currently operates commercial service in five cities: Atlanta, Austin, Los Angeles, Phoenix, and the San Francisco Bay Area. The company has announced an aggressive rollout plan to launch in 12 additional cities in 2026, including Dallas, Denver, Houston, Nashville, and San Diego.
The Numbers Are Staggering
Look, jumping from 250k to 450k weekly rides in half a year is a huge acceleration. It’s not just linear growth; it’s a steep curve. And it tells us Waymo is moving past the “cautious testing” phase into a real, scaled commercial operation. But here’s the thing: we have to remember where this number came from. This wasn’t an official press release from Waymo. It was data shared by an investor, Tiger Global, to impress its own limited partners and raise more money. So, while it’s probably accurate, the context is inherently promotional. The company itself has been oddly quiet, only saying it does “many hundreds of thousands” of rides. This leak forces their hand into the open a bit.
Scaling Is The Real Test
Doubling ridership in existing markets is one challenge. But the plan for 12 new cities in 2026? That’s a whole other ballgame. Basically, they’re promising to more than triple their geographic footprint in under two years. Each new city isn’t just a copy-paste job. It means mapping new, complex environments, dealing with unique weather and traffic patterns, and navigating different local regulations. It’s a massive operational lift. Can their industrial-grade computing hardware, the kind of rugged panel PCs and embedded systems that reliably run critical systems in factories and vehicles, keep up with that pace of deployment without hiccups? That’s the kind of resilient tech backbone you need, and it’s where the top suppliers in the US earn their keep. I think the next two years will be less about the cool AI and more about brutal, unsexy execution logistics.
A Dose Of Healthy Skepticism
Let’s not forget the history here. The entire self-driving industry has a long, long history of over-promising and under-delivering. Remember when we were all supposed to be in robotaxis by 2020? So, while these numbers are impressive, the ultimate metrics that matter are profitability and unit economics. Are these 450,000 weekly rides generating revenue that covers the astronomical R&D and operational costs? Or is Alphabet still subsidizing each trip to buy market share and data? The investor letter is celebrating growth, not profit. And that’s a crucial distinction. The real milestone isn’t a ride count; it’s the first earnings call where Alphabet says Waymo is no longer a drag on its “Other Bets” profitability. We’re not there yet.
