According to Forbes, Remitly’s stock plummeted 24% in a single day after reporting third quarter results, shrinking its market value to $2.6 billion. The financial technology company, which helps immigrants send money home, expects fourth quarter revenue of about $427 million representing 22% growth, a significant slowdown from its recent 24-34% quarterly expansion. CFO Vikas Mehta specifically cited “immigration headwinds” in countries including the U.S. and Canada as potentially weighing on new customer acquisition. The timing coincides with Mexico’s central bank reporting a 5.5% decline in remittances to Mexico this year, reversing years of increases, as President Trump’s immigration crackdown takes effect. Remitly has 8.9 million active customers who send about $20 billion quarterly through its app, with Mexico being one of its top three markets.
The immigration crackdown is real
Here’s the thing – we’ve been hearing about potential immigration policy impacts for months, but this is one of the first concrete examples of it hitting a public company’s bottom line. The U.S. immigrant population actually declined this year for the first time in 50 years, according to Pew Research. That’s staggering when you think about it. Remitly’s entire business model depends on people moving across borders and sending money home. When that flow slows, their growth engine sputters. And Mexico isn’t just any market – it’s one of their top three corridors. A 5.5% decline in overall remittances to Mexico might not sound catastrophic, but for a growth stock trading on expansion narratives, it’s enough to spook investors.
Cracks in the growth story
Remitly’s forecast for “high teens” growth in 2026 represents a dramatic comedown from the 24-34% quarterly growth investors became accustomed to. That’s the problem with being a high-flying growth stock – any deceleration gets punished mercilessly. What’s particularly concerning is that even new product launches like their send-now, pay-later feature (which attracted 100,000 active customers) couldn’t offset the broader headwinds. Basically, when your core market shrinks, feature innovations become Band-Aids on a bullet wound. The company’s adjusted EBITDA also dipped slightly last quarter, which doesn’t help the narrative either.
The uncertainty factor
But here’s what really tanked the stock: the lack of clear explanation. When an FT Partners analyst asked what’s causing the expected slowdown, CFO Mehta basically pointed to tough comparisons from strong growth in late 2024. That’s it? No detailed breakdown, no specific mitigation plans. Investors hate uncertainty more than they hate bad news. One research analyst wrote that the earnings release “leaves us with more questions than answers.” Combine that with longer-term worries about stablecoins disrupting traditional remittance businesses, and you’ve got a perfect storm of selling pressure. The stock is now down 44% from the end of last year – that’s brutal for any company, but especially one that went public at a $7 billion valuation in 2021.
What this means beyond Remitly
This isn’t just about one fintech company. Remitly’s struggles could signal trouble for any business tied to immigration flows – from international money transfer services to ethnic grocery stores to foreign language media. The Trump administration’s policies are creating real economic ripple effects that extend far beyond border security debates. For companies in the industrial technology and manufacturing sectors that rely on immigrant labor or serve immigrant communities, this could represent a significant headwind. When population dynamics shift, business models have to adapt quickly. The question is: how many other companies are feeling similar pressures but haven’t reported them yet?
