New Seismic Analysis Enables Earlier Eruption Forecasts for Mount Etna

Breakthrough in Volcanic Prediction

Researchers at Italy’s National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology (INGV) have developed a groundbreaking method for predicting volcanic eruptions months in advance, according to a new study published in Science Advances. The technique focuses on analyzing earthquake patterns that correspond to magma movement from deep within the Earth’s crust to the surface, potentially revolutionizing how scientists monitor active volcanoes like Mount Etna.

Current Limitations in Volcano Monitoring

Current volcano prediction methods primarily track shallow magma movement and typically provide only short-term eruption forecasts, sources indicate. This limited warning time gives local residents and authorities little opportunity to prepare for impending eruptions. The new approach addresses this critical gap by enabling medium to long-term predictions through advanced seismic analysis.

The b-Value Parameter: Key to Prediction

The research team’s method centers on a seismic parameter called the “b value,” which analysts suggest expresses the proportion of small to large earthquakes and is inversely dependent on mean earthquake magnitude. According to reports, the team analyzed two decades of earthquake data from Mount Etna spanning 2005 to 2024, using a sophisticated 3D seismic velocity model for precise earthquake location.

“Temporal changes in the b value at Mount Etna correspond directly to magma movement from deep to shallow crustal levels,” the study authors explain in their findings. “Magma recharge from the mantle causes a drop in b values at depths greater than 10 kilometers, while magma outflow to shallower sectors increases this parameter.”

Three-Tiered Crustal Analysis

The researchers divided Mount Etna’s seismic activity into three distinct crustal sectors for their analysis:

• Deep crust sector (greater than 10 kilometers depth)
• Intermediate sector (0-8 kilometers depth)
• Shallow crustal level (0-2 kilometers depth)

By calculating b-value time series for each sector separately, the team could track magma movement through different crustal levels with unprecedented precision, the report states.

Practical Applications and Global Potential

Analysis of historical data suggests that monitoring b values could have prevented past volcanic crises at Mount Etna, according to researchers. While scientists cannot retroactively warn communities about previous eruptions, they plan to incorporate b-value monitoring into multiparametric surveillance systems for future medium and long-term volcano monitoring.

The method shows promise for application to other active volcanoes worldwide, though analysts suggest its effectiveness depends on high-quality, continuous seismic monitoring and sufficient earthquake frequency. This limitation means the technique would be most applicable to highly active volcanic regions with robust monitoring infrastructure, similar to the conditions found in Italy‘s volcanic monitoring network.

Future Implications for Volcanic Risk Management

The breakthrough represents a significant advancement in volcanology that could substantially improve early warning systems for communities living near active volcanoes. By providing months of advance notice rather than days or weeks, the new method could transform disaster preparedness and risk management strategies for volcanic regions globally, according to the research team’s assessment.

References

• http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mount_Etna
• http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Magma
• http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volcano
• http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Earthquake
• http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Italy

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