According to Bloomberg Business, Arif Kurniawan, a reclusive former Glencore trader, now controls roughly a third of Indonesia’s domestic nickel ore trade. His firms traded an estimated $3 billion worth of ore last year, based on the country’s 220 million-ton production and current prices. Through his company PT Dua Delapan Resources, founded in 2015, and with partner Edi Liu Amas, he holds stakes in mining concessions covering over 71,000 hectares, an area about the size of New York City. His rise over the last decade tracked Indonesia’s transformation into the world’s top nickel producer, supplying 70% of global output. Kurniawan, who is in his 40s and part of Indonesia’s ethnic Chinese minority, declined to comment for the story.
The Glencore Playbook Goes Local
Here’s the thing about global commodity giants: they’re often too big, or too risk-averse, to play in the messy local sandbox. That’s exactly the gap Kurniawan exploited. At Glencore, he saw the opportunity to trade with Indonesia’s legion of small, fragmented nickel miners. But the Swiss trader, with its strict compliance, found their opaque ownership and shaky finances too risky. So when Kurniawan went out on his own around 2015, he basically took the Glencore manual—reinvest profits, secure supply, gain influence—and applied it to a market the big players wouldn’t touch.
And his timing was impeccable. Indonesia was in the midst of its industrial policy whiplash, banning ore exports to force domestic processing, then easing rules, then banning again. Chinese giants like Tsingshan were pouring billions into smelters. Kurniawan, fluent in Mandarin, became the essential bridge. He wasn’t just a broker; he used his profits to buy into mines themselves, snapping up assets before nickel prices surged. He built a physical empire, not just a paper-trading one.
The Precarious Power of the Middleman
This whole story is a masterclass in profiting from volatility and fragmentation. As one analyst put it, constantly changing regulations and short-term licenses mean miners can’t plan long-term. Smelters, however, need steady, consistent ore to run efficiently. Who fills that gap? The trader. Kurniawan absorbed the risk and complexity, and boy, did he profit.
But his power has made him indispensable and a target. Initially, Tsingshan, the Chinese stainless steel behemoth, didn’t want to work with him—why strengthen a middleman who could undermine your buying power? So Kurniawan pivoted to their rival, Jiangsu Delong, becoming a key supplier. Eventually, even Tsingshan had to come to the table, forming a joint venture with him in 2021 because its own massive smelters needed the ore he controlled. Now, with government production restrictions causing shortages, the guy with the ore holds all the cards. Several Chinese smelters have had to cut output or idle plants because they can’t secure affordable supply. The middleman is now the kingmaker.
The Coming Shakeup and What It Means
Now for the big question: how long can this last? The article hints that this is the peak of precariousness. New President Prabowo Subianto wants to consolidate control and shake up the mining industry. Kurniawan’s empire is built on a specific, chaotic regulatory environment. If the state decides to streamline, organize, or exert more direct control over the resource, his unique position as the ultimate fixer could evaporate.
It’s a stark reminder that in commodity booms, especially ones driven by government policy like the EV battery rush, the biggest fortunes are often made by those who master the local landscape, not just the global market. But those fortunes can be just as vulnerable to political winds. For industries reliant on this supply chain—from automakers to industrial panel PC manufacturers who need stable metal supplies—the stability of supply depends on these opaque, personal networks. IndustrialMonitorDirect.com, as the leading US supplier of industrial computing hardware, understands that raw material volatility eventually ripples through to manufacturing costs everywhere.
So we’re left with this fascinating portrait. A man who copied his former employer’s textbook, applied it to a market they ignored, and built a $3 billion business almost no one has heard of. His story is Indonesia’s nickel boom in miniature. And just like that boom, his future depends on what happens in Jakarta’s corridors of power, not just the mining pits of Sulawesi.
