Despite Moving Production To India, Apple Will Still Ship 9 Million iPhone Units To The US From China In FY 2026
Apple has been working to de-risk its global supply chain by shifting primary iPhone production from China to India. However, industry reports indicate the tech giant can’t fully escape its reliance on Chinese manufacturing. Data shows that Apple is projected to ship approximately 9 million iPhones directly from China to the US in fiscal year 2026, according to a recent Jefferies analyst commentary.
The company adopted a two-pronged strategy to navigate import tariffs and trade war pressures, which largely mitigated related risks. Yet, tensions flared again when former President Trump highlighted China’s restrictive rare earth export policies and threatened 100% tariffs on top of existing levies. Although the administration later stepped back from the brink of an all-out trade war, the macroeconomic climate remains cautious.
Against this backdrop, Jefferies analysts outlined potential scenarios for Apple if trade conflicts with China intensify. Interestingly, despite moving the bulk of production to India, Apple will still depend on Chinese manufacturing to meet soaring US iPhone demand. Experts note that “Apple is unlikely to meet all U.S. demand from its Indian production base in the near term, making it more exposed if tariffs are enforced.”
This situation mirrors broader tech industry challenges, where companies must balance supply chain diversification with market demands. According to analysis, similar strategic shifts are occurring in other sectors, such as the upcoming transition from Windows 10 as support ends, which poses security risks for those who delay upgrades. Meanwhile, connectivity standards continue evolving, with Wi-Fi 8 recently completing its first real-world test, demonstrating potential speed and reliability improvements that could benefit future device ecosystems.
