According to CNBC, Coinbase is gearing up to launch an in-house prediction market powered by Kalshi, with a formal announcement potentially coming as early as next week. The exchange is expected to unveil the new product at its “Coinbase System Update” event on December 17, where it may also announce a tokenized stock offering. Rumblings about the launch have swirled since November, with an alleged screenshot of the dashboard shared by researcher Jane Manchun Wong on X. The move is a strategic play to expand the asset classes on Coinbase at a time when investor sentiment on digital assets is cooling, with Bitcoin down 23% over the past three months and Coinbase’s own stock falling more than 16% in that period. The Information first reported on the Kalshi partnership back in November.
The “Everything Exchange” Play
Here’s the thing: this isn’t just about adding a quirky new feature. It’s a core part of CEO Brian Armstrong’s stated vision to turn Coinbase into an “everything exchange”—a one-stop financial services app. Think about it. They’ve got crypto (obviously), they’re reportedly adding tokenized stocks, and now prediction markets. They’re trying to become the homepage for anyone who wants to bet on… well, anything. The future of a tech stock? The outcome of an election? Whether Taylor Swift’s next tour date will sell out in minutes? Basically, if it can be turned into a contract, Coinbase wants you to trade it there.
Why This Makes Sense Now
But why the big push into new asset classes now? Look at the crypto market. It’s been rough. Bitcoin took a dive, leverage got wiped out, and money rotated into safer havens. When your core business is cyclical and volatile, you diversify. Prediction markets and tokenized real-world assets are a way to keep users engaged and trading even when the crypto hype cools off. It’s also a direct competitive shot across the bow at rivals like Robinhood, which already has a partnership with Kalshi, and Gemini and Kraken, which are exploring similar offerings. If you can’t beat ’em on crypto volume alone, you out-feature ’em.
The Bigger Picture for Kalshi
This deal is arguably just as big for Kalshi as it is for Coinbase. Kalshi’s whole play is to embed its event contracts into as many brokerages as possible. They’re not trying to be a destination app; they want to be the prediction market engine inside every major trading platform. A deal with Robinhood was a huge get. A deal with Coinbase, with its massive, crypto-savvy user base that’s already comfortable with speculative assets? That’s a home run. It turns Kalshi into a B2B infrastructure provider. I think we’ll see them in even more apps soon.
A Gamble on Attention
So, is this a smart move? In the long run, probably. Diversification is smart business. But in the short term, it’s a gamble on user attention. Can Coinbase successfully educate its crypto-native audience on a completely different type of speculative instrument? And will regulators look kindly on a major exchange diving headfirst into prediction markets? Those are open questions. One thing’s for sure: Coinbase is done being just a crypto exchange. They’re betting the company on being much, much more.
