According to Forbes, a new research paper by California high school senior Karissa Tang predicts AI will eliminate 27% of U.S. teen jobs by 2030. That’s more than one in four positions vanishing, primarily in the top 10 occupations that currently account for half of all teenage employment. The analysis, drawing on government data and published research, projects a 54% reduction in teen cashier roles (385,000 jobs lost) and a 37% decline for fast food counter workers. Tang, a UCLA research assistant and founder of her own board game company, was motivated by seeing automated kiosks replace cashiers at her aunt’s boba tea shop and other local cafes. The immediate impact is a rapidly shrinking pool of the entry-level, low-skill service jobs that employ about 5.6 million American teens today.
The Concentration Problem
Here’s the thing that makes this teen-specific forecast so alarming: it’s a brutal case of concentration risk. Sure, broader studies like the one from MIT suggesting AI could affect 12% of the total workforce get headlines. But they miss the point for young people. Teens aren’t spread evenly across the economy. They’re packed like sardines into the very front-line, repetitive, transaction-based roles that are the lowest-hanging fruit for automation. Self-checkout, AI ordering kiosks, and generative AI chatbots are basically being engineered to do exactly what a teen’s first job typically involves. So while adults might face disruption, teens are staring at potential eradication in their primary employment sectors.
More Than Just a Paycheck
Losing the income is bad enough for kids saving for a car or college. But the bigger loss might be intangible. As one marketing exec noted on Tang’s podcast interview, these jobs teach soft skills—responsibility, dealing with the public, basic work ethic—that are hard to replicate elsewhere. If that first rung on the career ladder disappears, what replaces it? We’re left with a generation that might miss out on foundational work experiences entirely. And let’s be honest, our education systems and policymakers are moving at a glacial pace compared to the rollout of this tech. Teens are about to be competing for a fraction of the jobs that once served as their training ground.
What Jobs Survive (And What Comes Next)
It’s not a complete wipeout, at least not immediately. Tang’s paper, which you can read in full here, points to roles requiring mobility and situational awareness as safer for now. Think hosts, stockers, or food prep cooks. But even that’s a temporary reprieve; kitchen robots are already on the way. So what’s the plan? Tang’s recommendations focus on building pathways that complement automation, not just compete with it. She pushes for expanded digital literacy, real-world financial skills, and creating more paid internships, apprenticeships, and project-based learning opportunities. Entrepreneurship gets a shout-out, too.
Basically, we need to stop thinking about teen employment as just flipping burgers or scanning groceries. The old model is breaking. The question is whether we can build something new—and more human—in its place before that 2030 deadline hits.
